and it's actaully not about who I hate or think you should vote for, just a word to the wise about our current conservative-win hysteria. Personally, just so I'm being honest, I will be voting NDP. I will not be practicing the "strategic voting" done by about 3 or so % of Canadians, because I don't think the Liberals need my help. I'm also voting NDP because I really like and support Libby Davies, the NDP incumbant MP in my riding, and because her Liberal opposition, Shirley Chan, is a racist and homophobic, who thinks that one of the biggest problems in east van is that the department of indian affairs is giving away too much money to first nations Canadians, and that's fueling drug problems. Right. Anyone who doesn't see the glaring problems with that kind of thinking, please write me right away so I can help. Okay, on to the rant (no, that wasn't it...)

For the past ten or so elections in Canada, the results have ALWAYS been within about 2% of polls done on the FIRST DAY of the campaign, which in this case would be a Liberal minority government. Why is this the case? Political psychologists suggest that it is because we often get swept up in the drama during an election campaign, and people begin to listen to election ads and saying yes, so and so is evil, or Stephen Harper's right, I deserve more tax cuts, or so on, and so during the campaign they say that their vote has changed, and that is reflected in the polls, like the ones that saw the Conservatives take the lead. Come election day, however, those same people can't actually bring themselves to vote for who they'd planned, because the prospect is just too scary. When it comes down to it, Canadians almost always opt for the status quo. Also, over 40% of partisans (that's people who belong to one party or another) in this country are Liberal, which is basically enough to guarentee a Liberal victory in and of itself, albeit a small one.

All of this said, of course it is possible that we will screw up and elect the conservatives, it's just pretty unlikely. There's a professor I've had up at UBC, and all he does is study Canadian elections and voter patterns and so on, and he's predicting a Liberal victory, so I'm on board with him, since his guess is based on a lot of study and even more elaboate phone polls.

What I'm trying to say, is let's not panic. Even if the Conservatives are elected, it will be a minority governemnt, and they will not be able to form a coalition with anyone, so if they do win it'll very likely be a 1979 Clark-style Conservative government, the kind that only lasts for a year and then crumbles and takes the party down with it.